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The World Agrees — We Need to Decarbonize
“Climate change is the single greatest threat to a sustainable future but, at the same time, addressing the climate challenge presents a golden opportunity to promote prosperity, security and a brighter future for all.”
— Ban Ki-Moon, Former Secretary-General of UN
Seven facts about climate change that the vast majority of the world agrees with — including, on the whole, the fossil fuel sector
Climate change is real.
Global warming is happening because humans have been putting greenhouse gases (primarily from the burning of fossil fuels) into the atmosphere.
Humans are warming the planet and fossil fuels are the primary source of greenhouse gases causing global warming.
The evidence for this is as solid as the link between smoking and lung cancer.
of human-induced warming is attributable to fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas.
The evidence for human-induced climate change related to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has only gotten stronger over time and it is now unequivocal.
Climate change is a crisis and a serious threat.
Human-induced global warming is disrupting our climate and has the potential to trigger earth systems breakdown.
Climate change is not about changes in weather — it is about increases in average temperatures over wide areas and long timeframes and it is occurring at a rate that neither people nor the planet can adapt to.
In fact, it has the potential to destabilize earth’s systems and it can cause long-term, locked-in and potentially irreversible changes with wide-ranging impacts not only to the environment but also to our health and well-being, our economies, societies, our lives and ways of life.
We did not build our societies for the climate impacts we are triggering.
We are already seeing evidence of global warming across the globe. With further warming we risk hitting irreversible tipping points and catastrophic climate change.
Please see the section: Why so Urgent?
We must stop putting greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to prevent the crisis from getting worse and triggering irreversible tipping points.
To address the climate crisis we are facing, we need to stop the accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane (e.g. natural gas) in the atmosphere.
We need to reduce our carbon emissions. This mostly involves shifting away from fossil fuels and toward solutions that don’t cause climate breakdown wherever possible, as well as capturing and storing the remaining emissions.
Global targets to limit greenhouse gas accumulation will minimize damage and may protect us from reaching tipping points.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which formed in the 1980s, is the authoritative source for reporting on the world’s collective research on the state of the climate crisis and our progress towards solving for it.
• Thus far, we’ve warmed the world to about 1.2°C above preindustrial levels and are already seeing many adverse impacts of climate change.
• Without the action taken to date, we would have headed for a 4–5°C increase (or worse) by 2100 with social and economic chaos and incalculable death, loss, and suffering for life on earth.
• In 2015, 194 nations signed the Paris Agreement, committing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
• In 2018, the IPCC formalized a key target of Net Zero greenhouse gases by 2050 to achieve this temperature goal. This means that by 2050 we cannot be putting more carbon in the air than we are taking out (through, for example, carbon sinks like forests, Regenerative Agriculture, and Carbon capture and storage.)
• There are no viable paths where we continue to pump carbon into the air at anywhere near the rate we do today.
We need to up our game — our current trajectory has us headed toward about 3.2°C of global warming.
Although the world is largely on board with avoiding a climate catastrophe and a lot of positive action is being taken, the latest data suggests that we need to up our game.
If we fully implement our current greenhouse gas reduction plans quickly and successfully, we are still projected to cause a temperature increase of about 3.2°C compared with pre-industrial levels.
See The World is Already Doing More Than You May Know.
But we have not yet implemented the policies that will bring us down to 3.2°C, let alone taken further action to limit the temperature increase to under 2°C.
Implementing the current policies requires individual action and citizen support.
The Paris Agreement has a built-in formal mechanism for countries to increase their ambition over time. Individuals and businesses need to follow suit.
No country is spared from the impacts of the climate crisis, but the global South is more severely impacted even though countries in the global South have contributed little to the problem.
The Global South, that includes many developing countries in hotter climates, is far more severely impacted by the climate crisis than the global North, even though they have contributed little to the problem.
As such, there is broad agreement that developed countries (and private capital) should help developing countries deal with the losses and damages from the climate crisis and adapt to climate change.
0t = 0 tonnes
Adapted from: Our World in Data – Global Carbon Budget (2023); Population based on various sources (2023) – with major processing by Our World in Data. Note: excludes international aviation and emissions embedded in traded goods.
Globally, we are undergoing an energy transition away from unabated carbon emissions driven largely by a shift to clean energy and electrification.
Mitigating the crisis involves a global energy transition away from unabated carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Key drivers of this energy transition are a shift to non-emitting electricity production (e.g. moving from coal and gas generated electricity to renewable sources and nuclear energy) and the electrification of heating and personal transportation.
There are many other initiatives and solutions as well, a number of which are described within this site.
Citizens also agree
Citizens across the globe agree that we need to address climate change.
of people across the globe and 82% of Canadians agree that climate change is happening.
of global citizens realize that humans are causing or contributing to climate change including ~80% of Canadians. This number has been increasing over time but it still lower than what the physics and math of climate tells us is true.16
The science indicates that most, if not ALL, of the current changes in climate patterns, (i.e. changes from the normal background of natural weather events and patterns, seasonality and long-term shifts predicted from natural forces), are due to human activities. These human activities are mostly related to our dependence on fossil carbon from coal, oil, and natural gas.
of global citizens, including 65% of Canadians want a rapid transition away from fossil fuels towards renewables to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and prevent the worst impacts of climate change.19
Majorities of citizens around the globe now agree — we need to decarbonize.
A large majority of people from across the globe is in agreement that we need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions to stop climate change
So what is being debated then?
It is not the ‘whether’, ‘what’, or ‘why’ of the climate crisis that are being debated, but rather the ‘how’, ‘realistic when’, and ‘who’ of emissions reduction, and therefore the ‘realistic when’ of achieving Net Zero.
The science tells us that we must have deep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel use and that we can have no new fossil fuel development projects if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change and protect the world for future generations. It is a race against time and we are not on track yet.
Those that want to delay action will say that it is not realistic or desirable to shift quickly. Don’t be swayed by their delay tactics. A rapid energy shift is extremely challenging and complicated but it is possible and less damaging and expensive than delayed action.
Addressing climate change is not a left-wing agenda or just an environmental issue.
It’s true that you would be hard pressed to find an environmental organization that disagrees with the urgent need for climate action.
However, the agreement goes far beyond environmental organizations. Below you can find a sample list of other governmental and non-governmental organizations as well as leaders in non-environmental disciplines and industries.
Many of the organizations below don’t just agree with the fact that human activity is causing a climate crisis and the need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they are actively working on climate change mitigation, climate adaptation, helping those adversely impacted by the climate crisis and managing both the physical risks of climate change for different regions/populations/economic sectors and the risks we need to manage through the transition to clean energy.
Supreme Court of Canada — References re Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act
“The Supreme Court also pointed out that all of the parties agree that global climate change is real. It’s caused by greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities and it poses a grave threat to the future of humanity.”
The Economists’ Statement on Climate Change, signed by more than 2,600 economists (including 19 Nobel laureates) was published in 1997, prior to the Kyoto Protocol. It remains the largest public statement in the history of the economics profession.
“Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the planet today, and we believe businesses are an essential part of the solution,”
— Doug McMillon, Walmart Inc. president and CEO6
“There’s no greater crisis than climate change. You don’t have to look beyond the summer, at the droughts and the wildfires and the heat… I think it’s in shareholders’ best interest that companies work on climate change”
“By 2030, Apple’s entire business will be carbon neutral—from supply chain to the power you use in every device we make. The planet we share can’t wait, and we want to be a ripple in the pond that creates a much larger change.”
— Tim Cook, Apple CEO7
“…at our scale, we have a significant Carbon Footprint. It’s a big part of why we created The Climate Pledge a few years ago (a pledge to be net-zero carbon by 2040, ten years ahead of the Paris Agreement.) We’re making significant progress on this effort (we’re committed to powering our operations with 100% renewable energy by 2025—five years ahead of our original target of 2030, we have ordered over 100,000 electric vans to deliver packages, and have over 300 companies who’ve joined us in The Climate Pledge.)
But, we have a different challenge than most companies given the diversity and intensity of our operations (including shipping billions of packages per year.) We’re committed to the challenge, but it will take relentless invention.”
— Andy Jassy, Amazon CEO (succeeded Jeff Bezos in 2023)8
The Fossil Fuel Industry no longer denies the fact of the climate crisis or that emissions reductions are needed to address it. But the only viable paths to Net Zero require a fossil fuel phase-out.
OPEC
“Climate change is an undeniable issue affecting each and every one of us on this planet. Indeed it is one of the greatest challenges facing mankind both today and in the future.
The need to address climate change is not only clear in recent reports of the international scientific community, but also in increasingly extreme weather patterns and other disastrous events, which are already affecting many vulnerable communities worldwide9.”
World Energy Council – 2007
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recently confirmed that the evidence for global warming is unequivocal and the Stern Report has argued that early action to combat climate change makes economic sense10.”
International Gas Union
“CO2 is a key contributor to the climate crises. A large portion is coming from the energy sector’s power and heat, that uses fossil fuels. The energy sector is one of the main economic pillars of our economy and can play a crucial role in fighting the climate crises, directly and indirectly11.”
Gas Technology Institute
“GTI Energy is an organization dedicated to advancing the economy-wide transformation needed to deeply decarbonize energy systems while supplying the energy needed to support rising standards of living and economic growth worldwide12.”
American Petroleum Institute
“API and its members commit to delivering solutions that reduce the risks of climate change while meeting society’s growing energy needs. We support global action that drives greenhouse gas emissions reductions and economic development13.”
American Gas Association
“Climate change is a defining challenge across the globe, and natural gas, natural gas utilities, and the delivery infrastructure are essential to meeting our nation’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals. AGA engaged ICF to conduct the first comprehensive analysis exploring natural gas utility pathways to achieve net-zero emissions14.”
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
“Continued investment in innovation and technology is driving down emissions intensity and positions our industry as part of the global solution needed to tackle the global climate challenge. Climate change is a serious and real issue. Our industry is well positioned with expertise in both science and technology to reduce emissions15.”
Delaying the energy transition is not a viable path for humanity
We need to transition everything we possibly can with the clean solutions we have now.
Remember 1.5°C means more disasters than what we are seeing today — at ~1.2°C — and we are currently not even on track to hit that rapidly fading best case scenario.
We have no choice but to overcome the behavioural and political barriers that are preventing us from addressing this crisis. It is here now and our children and those already impacted deserve better.
The good news is that…
The energy transition is happening.
The energy transition is technologically and economically feasible.
The energy transition is financially prudent — in addition to the relatively lower costs of action versus inaction, fossil fuels will be stranded assets as we transition to clean energy so new fossil fuel infrastructure (e.g. new gas lines) that tries to lock-in fossil fuel use into the future is wasted money.
The energy transition can be accelerated to align with the Net Zero 2050 goals (though the window for 1.5°C is rapidly closing) with more ambitious action.
Read more in the section, The World is Already Doing More That You May Know.
The energy transition is a major part of our efforts to address climate change — but it is not the only transition.
Note that, increasingly — as we delay action — we also need to rely more heavily on solutions that are not even viable at scale yet — like Carbon capture and storage (CCS) — and new, risky solutions with consequences we can’t anticipate — like geoengineering. The sooner we act, the less risky and more orderly the transition.
We need people to elect/re-elect leaders that can lead us out of this crisis and hold them to account.
We need to finance the energy transition and stop financing the crisis.
And we need to step into a sustainable future ourselves.
To a large extent, in Canada, the solutions for a sustainable future are already here waiting for us. We just need to act.
Remember, there are no paths in which we, particularly in the developed world, keep using fossil fuels into the future at anywhere near the levels we do today. All paths require that we switch away from fossil fuels wherever possible, as soon as possible. Everyone everywhere all at once. Don’t wait.
Last updated September 2024
References
1. Dembicki, G. (2022). Petroleum papers: Inside the far-right conspiracy to cover up climate change. Greystone Books.
2. Ar6 synthesis report: Climate change 2023. IPCC. (2023, March). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/
3. Zaelke, D., Picolotti, R., & Dreyfus, G. (2023, September 15). The Need for Fast Near-Term Climate Mitigation to Slow Feedbacks and Avoid Tipping Points. https://igsd.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Science-Supporting-Need-for-Fast-Near-Term-Climate-Mitigation-Sept2020.pdf
4. Igini, M. (2023, August 14). The tipping points of climate change: How will our world change?. Earth.Org. https://earth.org/tipping-points-of-climate-change/
5. Ritchie, H., Rosado, P., & Roser, M. (2023, December 5). CO₂ and greenhouse gas emissions. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions
6. Whieldon, E. (2020, September 16). Group of 200 CEOS calls for price on carbon to tackle climate change. S&P Global Homepage. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/group-of-200-ceos-calls-for-price-on-carbon-to-tackle-climate-change-60367303
7. Palmer, A. (2022, April 14). Amazon CEO Jassy just released his first annual shareholder letter since taking over from Bezos. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/14/amazon-ceo-andy-jassy-releases-his-first-annual-shareholder-letter.html
8. The Star. (2023, October 4). “there’s no greater crisis than climate change,” says Apple Boss. https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/10/04/039there039s-no-greater-crisis-than-climate-change039-says-apple-boss#:~:text=%22I%20think%20it’s%20in%20shareholders,hard%20work%2C%22%20he%20said.;
Evans, J. (2020, July 21). “The planet can’t wait,” says Tim Cook as Apple Goes Carbon Neutral. https://www.computerworld.com/article/3567654/the-planet-cant-wait-says-tim-cook-as-apple-goes-carbon-neutral.html
9. OPEC. (2019, April). The climate change challenge. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/5500.htm
10. World Energy Council. (2007). Energy and climate change executive summary. https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/PUB_Energy_and_Climate_Change_Exec_Summary_2007_WEC.pdf
11. Welcome to the Global Gas Portal. IGU. (2023, December 15). https://www.igu.org/
12. GTI Energy. (2023, November 10). https://www.gti.energy/
13. Climate change. Energy API. (2021). https://www.api.org/oil-and-natural-gas/environment/climate-change
14. Pathways to net-zero. American Gas Association. (2023, April 17). https://www.aga.org/research-policy/pathways-to-net-zero/
15. Climate Change & The Canadian Oil and Gas Industry. CAPP. (2023). https://www.capp.ca/environment/climate-change;
Industry’s Climate Commitment – Capp: A unified voice for Canada’s upstream oil and gas industry. CAPP. (2023). https://www.capp.ca/explore/industrys-climate-commitment/
16. Leiserowitz, A., Verner, M., Goddard, E., Wood, E., Carman, J., Reynoso, N. O., Thulin, E., Rosenthal, S., Marlon, J., & Buttermore, N. (2024, March 17). International public opinion on Climate change, 2023. Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/international-public-opinion-on-climate-change-2023/
17. DeWeerdt, S. (2024, September 17). People underestimate scientific consensus on climate. Correcting the record goes a long way. Anthropocene. https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2024/09/people-underestimate-scientific-agreement-on-climate-correcting-the-record-goes-a-long-way/
18. Ramanujan, K. (2021, October 19). More than 99.9% of studies agree: Humans caused climate change. Cornell Chronicle. https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2021/10/more-999-studies-agree-humans-caused-climate-change; Lynas, M., Houlton, B. Z., & Perry, S. (2021, October 19). Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966
19. Flynn, C., & Jardon, S. T. (2024, June). The Peoples’ Climate Vote 2024. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/publications/peoples-climate-vote-2024